Collecting In Real Time
“The party’s not over, we just kicked out all the drunk people.”
Eugene Tutunikov, the CEO and founder of SwissWatchExpo, a leading secondary watch dealer, is talking about the cooling of the feverish collectable watch market of a few years back. “During the pandemic, there was a frenzy,” he says. “People were sitting home with cash piling up in their bank s making zero interest, so they were looking for ways to spend that money. Watches became an instrument where a lot of that capital ended up flowing into, and we saw prices of certain watches jump to crazy highs.”
The bubble reached the limit in May 2022, then prices started falling dramatically. “They were chasing such high prices for Daytonas and other stuff hoping to make 500 bucks in a few weeks by flipping, and they got stuck holding the bag,” he says. “Those guys are gone now.”
During the pandemic, speculation on watches was turbocharged with prices on the secondary market for highly coveted models, such as Rolex Daytona and Patek Philippe Nautilus, skyrocketing up to five times suggested retail, since availability was so limited through watch dealers.
The casual observer might point to Sotheby’s June watch auction, when a Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime Ref. 6300G-010 owned by Sylvester Stallone sold for a headline-making $5.4 million, and wonder if the boom is persisting. After all, that grail watch, still in its sealed factory packaging, did net the actor an estimated profit of up to $2 million in just a few years, making it a flip for the ages.
However, that sale appears to be an outlier and, in the realm of watch enthusiasts, a market normalization may be welcome news. Many feel such rare pieces are intended to be ed down through the generations, not used as vehicles of market speculation.
At European Watch Co., a secondary watch dealer in Boston, CEO Joshua Ganjei reports a renaissance of seasoned collectors who are more active than ever. “With speculators and flippers stepping back due to diminished margins over retail, the focus has shifted,” he says. “Most brands have cooled in collectability, allowing true enthusiasts to shine. We’re now engaging with ionate watch lovers who appreciate the art and craft of watchmaking, not just its monetary value.”
Given all the speculative volatility in recent years, the longstanding golden rule of watch collecting—“buy what you love”—is more resonant than ever.
“There are plenty of customers who would love to own a timepiece and they are not concerned with the resale value,” says Ruediger “Rudy’” Albers, president of Wempe Jewelers in New York. “They are buying for the emotions the watch might give them, for a special moment or milestone to commemorate in their life. They let somebody else worry about what this watch could bring 20 years from now.”
The Usual Suspects
Retailers have a clear picture of what’s driving collectors’ desires this year, following the spring Watches and Wonders Geneva fair, where more than 50 brands showcased their latest timepieces. Some of the standouts are not surprises.
Deputy CEO David Hurley of Watches of Switzerland, with nine stores in the United States, references Rolex’s hefty new Deepsea in 18-karat yellow gold ($54,200) and the classical 1908 dress watch in platinum with an icy-blue dial ($30,900) as among the most sought-after pieces this year.
Other favorites include Patek Philippe’s chic Golden Ellipse Ref. 5738/1R on a new gold chain bracelet ($60,100) and Cartier’s Santos Dumont and Privé Tortue models. “We’re seeing huge momentum for Cartier as a brand,” Hurley says.
Cartier also got the nod from Wempe’s Albers, who pointed out a stainless steel Santos de Cartier with a gradated brown sunray-brushed dial. The striking design comes in two sizes: 35.1mm ($7,050) and 39.8mm ($7,750). Each is equipped with the brand’s QuickSwitch interchangeable system that lets you easily swap out the steel bracelet for an alternate brown alligator leather strap. “A lot of people who I thought would choose the large model are going for the smaller size, and I am always surprised,” he says. “There’s definitely a trend to smaller watches.”
Indeed, the shift to watches in the 36-mm to 38-mm range is noted at several brands as they attempt to broaden the market for popular models. Hurley reports increased interest in gold—solid yellow or rose gold as well as mixed-metal combinations of steel and gold. He also sees an emerging trend back towards dress watches and a renewed interest in complications.
At Wempe, there is more demand than can possibly be satisfied for the new Patek Philippe white gold Ref. 5164G Aquanaut Travel Time ($63,040) and the white gold Ref. 5980/60G Nautilus self-winding flyback chronograph ($78,950) with an opaline blue-gray dial and complementary denim-patterned calfskin strap.
“It’s always challenging because these watches are made in such small production units, so it doesn’t translate into too many pieces,” he says, adding that they have such coveted models on display so customers can experience them while they wait. “Hopefully we can satisfy them in the long run, but in the short term it’s a bit of a challenge.”
Another instant crowd pleaser is the new 40-mm Oystersteel Rolex GMT-Master II with the two-tone, 24-hour Cerachrom bezel in black and gray, available on an Oyster bracelet ($10,700) or a Jubilee bracelet ($10,900).
“A lot of people come in looking for a certain Rolex and they realize it may not be available as timely as they would like,” Albers says. “If they have extra disposable income, they might buy a different watch such as the 39-mm Tudor Pelagos, which was an instant success. We have 22 brands, so we walk around and see what appeals to them.”
Independent Variables
While Rolex and Patek Philippe still dominate the collector market, retailers are also seeing a surge in demand for lesser-known independent brands, such as H. Moser & Cie. and Ulysse Nardin. These smaller independents satisfy a craving for creative and cutting-edge watchmaking that makes clients stand apart from the crowd.
“A lot of our collectors are looking beyond the main brands, Rolex, Patek, Cartier,” says Hurley, who has seen H. Moser & Cie. and Ulysse Nardin emerge as dynamos in the independent space.
Jared Silver, president of Stephen Silver Fine Jewelry with two stores in the heart of Silicon Valley catering to the tech crowd, confirms growth with independent brands, particularly avant-garde, low-volume micro-brands. “During Covid, people took the time to educate themselves about the independent watch world. They already have watches from the bigger conglomerate brands, and now they’re discovering the smaller brands.
“Our clients are fascinated with the artistic and engineering sides of mechanical watchmaking and they like that it’s an analog, old-school way of calculating time,” he continues. One of his clients has even made it a goal to make watches the one area in his life that is not digital.
While Silver believes steel sport watches with integrated bracelets have had their moment in the sun, rarefied sporty models on rubber straps—such as Greubel Forsey’s GMT Sport and Convexe and MB&F’s EVO—have been hugely successful.
He highlights MB&F as a brand with “interesting momentum,” citing its perpetual calendar as one of the most iconic designs of the last decade. He’s also been fielding requests for the LM Sequential Chronograph while the LM Sequential Flyback Platinum ($218,000) that came out earlier this year was a huge hit.
There’s also a waiting list for the sporty Greubel Forsey Balancier 3 (about $195,000), which introduced a lower price point for the elite brand last year. “It’s kind of funny to say $195,000 is their entry price point,” Silver says. “Greubel Forsey is known for being arguably the finest finished watch in the industry. And as they’ve gone up in production, they’ve been very diligent about not compromising quality.”
Laurent Ferrier has been a sleeper brand for Silver’s connoisseur collectors who are captivated with the design nuances and fascinating founder story. The company is named for a third-generation watchmaker who spent 37 years at Patek Philippe, where he eventually reached the position of creative director. In 2009, Ferrier set off to launch his own company with François Servanin, a longtime friend and fellow racecar driver.
While known for such elegant haute horlogerie dress watches as this year’s 40-mm Classic Moon (70,000 Swiss francs, or about $82,000, in steel and 80,000 Swiss francs, or about $94,000, in rose gold), the brand surprised enthusiasts a few years ago with the Sport Auto Titanium ($54,000). An homage to Ferrier’s racing days, it is quick to disappear from the store. “We haven’t had one hit our showcase,” Silver says. “They are presold and picked up within a week of arriving. The ion people have for that brand is really impressive.”
Another niche brand that is picking up steam at Stephen Silver and Watches of Switzerland is H. Moser & Cie. In 2020, H. Moser introduced the retro-futuristic Streamliner Chronograph with an integrated steel bracelet and named it for the sleek trains of the same name in the Deco era. Since then, the collection has been built out with numerous iterations, most recently the Streamliner Concept Minute Repeater Tourbillon Blue Enamel ($296,000), which features an Aqua Blue “Grand Feu” enamel dial with a hammered texture.
The Streamliner Tourbillon Skeleton that debuted at Watches and Wonders Geneva was one of Silver’s best-of-show picks. He has already sold out two years of allocations on that model. “They’ve been on a roll, but they hit a tipping point,” says Silver, who wears the Vanta Black Streamliner on a daily basis. The Moser momentum extends beyond Streamliner to all its models, including the hard-to-get Pioneer Cylindrical Tourbillon Skeleton (79,000 Swiss francs, or $93,000) from two years ago.
Another clear winner among independents at all the surveyed retailers is the Ulysse Nardin Freak S Nomad ($148,300), which launched in the spring. The brand has been doubling down on the avant-garde Freak in recent years and this latest limited-edition stands apart by blending the traditional handcraft of guilloché engraving with the Freak’s unconventional design defined by its unique carousel “spaceship” movement.
“What a beautiful piece it is,” says Albers. “Rare, Old World hand craftsmanship combined with high-tech appeal—and they’re using high-tech materials like silicium [silicon] to combat magnetism.”
Hurley has seen New York locations attracting new and younger collectors. “It’s probably not their first purchase,” he says of customers interested in independent brands. “Perhaps they’ve purchased a Rolex or Cartier first, then they get more and more interested and branch out into timepieces like H. Moser or Ulysse Nardin. We even see it at our events, attracting young professionals in their late 20s to early 40s who are really interested in horology in general versus any one particular brand and they’re looking to be wowed.”
Social Climbers
European Watch Co.’s Ganjei believes that social media has revolutionized the watch-collecting landscape with digital engagement rapidly accelerating its popularity and propelling growth. “Enthusiasts now share their collections and recent acquisitions with a global audience, fostering a vibrant and interconnected community,” he says. “Today, we see a surge in collectors, many of whom are starting at a younger age than ever before.”
Independent brands have enjoyed particular growth as social media provides small companies with the ability to promote their creations via an affordable platform with huge reach, according to Hurley. “I just don’t know if that would have happened without social media,” he says. “Ten years ago, somebody would have told them, you are going to have to do a multimillion-dollar marketing campaign, and even then, you’ll just be scratching the surface.”
The youth movement among watch collectors has also debunked previous notions that young people would never wear watches, as they would rely on their phones for the time. Instead, Instagram’s watch culture has made a significant impact in driving demand for mechanical watches, particularly for more expensive hard-to-get models that convey status.
“With the rise of social media and the cool, aspirational lifestyle that so many people show off—the private jet, the Champagne, the car, the sneakers—watches became a part of that, too,” says Tutunikov of SwissWatchExpo. “It’s getting them more excited about participating in luxury watches and starting collections.”
Collecting Thoughts
Traditionally, collectors tend to build their horological treasure troves around a certain theme—be it a favorite complication like the chronograph, brands they have an affinity for or whatever creates a cohesive assortment.
For those looking to get started, Hurley recommends visiting a multi-brand store that carries a wide variety of watches to explore without rushing into a purchasing decision. “Take your time, visit multiple times and build a rapport with a salesperson that you get on well with and have confidence in,” he says, noting that clients often pull the trigger as much as a full year after initially seeing a piece. “These are expensive purchases, so make sure you’re buying what you like.”
When it comes to strategy, Silver says it depends on where people are on their watch collecting journey. “They can start with the gateway drug of watches, which is Rolex for most people,” he says. “As they grow and expand their tastes and educate themselves, that rabbit hole they’re going down gets deeper and it’s really never-ending. So, they find their niche and stick to that.”
One of his collector clients who loves perpetual calendars has assembled an incredible collection from a variety of brands around that specific complication. Another keeps his collection focused on rose gold, purchasing a wide variety of watches with various complications in that metal with its warm tone.
Silver stresses steering clear of buying watches you’re not in love with just to build a purchasing history with a retailer in order to access limited, in-demand pieces. “That’s just absurd,” he says. “A lot of people have gone down that route, where they feel like they have to buy something or they get pressured into it.
“Buy what you like—100 percent,” he says. “It’s the same advice that an art collector gave me when I bought my first piece of artwork. Don’t worry about what other people say, just buy what you love, because you’re the one who has to look at it and you’re the one paying for it. Buy what you love.”
Auction Blocks
Last summer, EveryWatch, a global online platform for watch information, published a report analyzing the June watch auctions in New York at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips and compared results with last year’s.
While the number of lots sold ballooned, the increase in sales prices was not nearly as robust. Sales totaled $52.27 million, a 9.87 percent increase from the previous year, on the sale of 470 lots, reflecting a 37 percent increase in volume. Patek Philippe dominated with more than $17.68 million in total sales and 122 lots. Sylvester Stallone’s Grandmaster Chime 6300G-010 (see main story) was the No. 1 lot overall, selling at Sotheby’s for $5.4 million. The Geneva powerhouse claimed half of the top 10 spots. Rolex ranked second in of brand clout with total sales of $8.95 million on 110 lots.
The results reflected the falling price trend on the secondary market for the most coveted models from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet. For example, the Rolex Daytona made 42 appearances, averaging $132,053, down 41 percent on average compared to the previous year. Patek Philippe’s Nautilus, one of the top five watches, made 26 appearances with an average price of $111,198, a decrease of 26 percent in value. The Royal Oak from Audemars Piguet had 22 appearances and an average price of $105,673, a 10 percent drop in value.
